Retirees Seen as Southwest Florida Area's Saviors

By Michael Braga
Sarasota Herald Tribune, Feb. 13, 2008

It was the prospect of baby boomers retiring en masse to Florida that fueled the state's real estate boom, and it will be the actual arrival of baby boomers over the next few years that will help the region rebound from its current malaise.

At least that is the way Brad Edmondson, the former editor of American Demographics magazine, sees it.

Speaking at a forum Tuesday that was sponsored by the University of South Florida's Institute for Public Policy and Leadership, Edmondson said there has been some decline in population growth in the area as evidenced by the fact that school enrollment is 2.6 percent below forecasted levels.

But Edmondson predicted that Southwest Florida's population will not decline, and once the current housing correction passes, the region will grow thanks to an influx of retirees.

"The fundamental supply of retirees for this area is about to grow explosively," Edmondson said.

Though only 20 percent of Americans aged 60 and older end up moving across state lines, Edmondson said Sarasota-Bradenton will get more than its share.

"The number of people entering their 60s will grow five times as fast as during the 1990s," Edmondson said. "This is an age group that thinks Sarasota-Bradenton is a good place to live."

With those retirees will come another group of migrants, who will mow their lawns and pour their drinks. That other group of migrants will be far more racially mixed than ever before -- a trend that is already evident in Southwest Florida.

"Thirty-seven percent of children in Sarasota-Bradenton are black, Hispanic or Asian," Edmondson said. "Ninety-seven percent of people over 65 are white."

Besides Edmondson, the panel at the USF forum included Deerfield Beach real estate consultant Jack McCabe; Florida Sen. Mike Bennett, R-Bradenton; Attorney Bill Earl and developer Pat Neal.

McCabe said that the current housing-induced doldrums in the region will likely last a long time.

"When people ask me where we are in the correction, I say we're not at the top of the ninth, we're at the bottom of the third," McCabe said. "We will see real estate prices drop 10 to 15 percent this year and probably next year, and they won't flatten out until at least 2010."

Neal, president of the Lakewood Ranch-based home building company bearing his name, put on a happier face: "Florida is going to grow."

For his part, Bennett said there is too much emphasis in Florida on attracting high-skill, high-technology jobs and not enough emphasis on protecting the jobs the region has.

"We've lost our marine manufacturers," Bennett said, referring to the departure of Wellcraft Marine and others.

Bennett said he plans to introduce legislation that would offer additional incentives for boat builders and other similar businesses to remain in Florida.

"We have incentives to attract businesses that employ several hundred, but we don't have incentives to keep industries that employ thousands."